Tuesday, July 01, 2008

“It's time for Republicans to develop a new brand of conservatism”   [Rich Lowry]

Here’s an excerpt from McLaughlin & Associates memo to be released tomorrow on the results of their latest survey and the state of the race:

Currently, voters are voting for Senator Barack Obama over Senator John McCain, 46% to 38% respectively.  Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided.  This vote is being driven largely by President George W. Bush’s low opinion ratings.  Those favorable to President Bush (37% total) are voting for Senator McCain 74% to 15% for Senator Obama.  Those unfavorable to President Bush (54% total) are voting for Senator Obama 69% to 14% for Senator McCain.

On the generic ballot for Congress, the generic Democrat has a 9-point lead over the generic Republican: 34% vote Republican, 43% vote Democrat and 23% are undecided.  Democrats are slightly more energized, as 81% of the partisan Democrats vote for the generic Democrat; while 77% of the partisan Republicans vote for the generic Republican.  Fifty-five percent (55%) of independents are undecided in the generic ballot.

Voters unfavorable to President Bush are just as likely to vote for the Democrat (65%) as voters favorable to President Bush are likely to vote for the Republican (68%).  The difference is, voters who are unfavorable to President Bush represent 54% of the sample, while voters who are favorable to him represent only 37%. 

President Bush’s unfavorable rating rises to 59% among independents and 63% among moderates.  These two voter segments are crucial for Senator McCain and the Congressional Republicans.

Voters who are undecided in their vote for President are unfavorable to President Bush by a greater than 2:1 margin; or 26% favorable to 60% unfavorable.   Voters who are undecided in the generic ballot for Congress also have a majority unfavorable opinion of President Bush – 29% favorable / 56% unfavorable. 

Senator McCain’s majority favorable rating of 55% is significant, but it should be noted that the plurality, 32%, are only “somewhat favorable” to Senator McCain.  This signifies soft support.  Among independents, Senator McCain has a better than 2:1 favorable to unfavorable rating – 56% favorable / 26% unfavorable.  Among moderates, Senator McCain’s ratings slip, as he is 49% favorable and 37% unfavorable.  Those who are unfavorable to President Bush are also unfavorable to Senator McCain, 32% favorable to 54% unfavorable. 

Again, Senator McCain must improve his standing with independents and moderates.  Come November, these two voter segments will determine the outcome of the election.  Interestingly, Senator McCain receives a 56% favorable rating among independents compared to Senator Obama who receives a 55% favorable rating among independents.  The difference is that, Senator Obama has a 13-point advantage among these independent voters – 30% Senator McCain / 43% Senator Obama / 28% undecided.   Again, Senator McCain needs a strong message to bring these voters back into the fold.  Although Senator McCain has a good rating with Independents, he loses their vote as they still link their votes for President to President Bush's unfavorable rating - not their opinion of Senator John McCain….

Ironically Senator John McCain is already better liked among both conservatives and Republicans than President Bush, while the President now has significant negatives among both his ideological and party bases. It's time for Republicans to develop a new brand of conservatism that directly contrasts on the issues to Senator Obama and the Democratic Party.

07/01 01:47 PMShare