Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Ron Paul's Trouble At Home?   [David Freddoso]

David Hill, a Texas Republican pollster, writes in today's issue of The Hill that Ron Paul "is about to lose his congressional seat" while he's out campaigning for president. Considering Paul's outspoken opposition to the war, and his general eccentricity, it is not an unreasonable proposition on its face — that is, until you actually read Hill's piece.

As evidence for his point, Hill cites a push poll that he took in Paul's district in 2004(?). Here is what he had to say about it:

...NASA is based in Paul’s district...When told that “Ron Paul consistently opposes taxpayer funding for NASA and wants to eliminate the agency,” 61 percent of Republican primary voters said this information would make them less likely to vote for Paul’s reelection.

That's interesting — except that NASA is based in the neighboring Houston-Galveston district of Rep. Nick Lampson (D-Tex.). Or at least, that's what Lampson's office and his website tell me. This should not have been too difficult to check. (Paul's press secretary notes that there are several NASA employees and retirees living in Paul's district.)

Hill's other piece of evidence is a September straw poll in Dallas (six hours from Paul's district), which Duncan Hunter won with 41 percent. None of the major candidates participated in the poll, partly because it was limited to current and former party convention delegates and alternates. Paul, despite being in his home state, received only only 17 percent of the votes cast. Paul did not do as well as he'd hoped, but how this is representative of anything that's going on in Paul's district — or anywhere — is completely beyond me.

Finally, Hill cites a phantom poll from "another pollster" from this year. He gives no numbers or questions, but suggests that one of Paul's challengers, Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden, has a shot at beating him in the March primary. Well, maybe he does. But considering that Peden began his campaign in May and had just $400 in his campaign account at the end of the last quarter, is this assertion worth an entire column in The Hill?

11/14 11:20 AMShare