Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Oops   [Byron York]

We'll be hearing a lot about the need for a critical reassessment of polling practices after Hillary Clinton's victory yesterday.  If there was any totally accepted, absolutely unquestioned belief among the press here in New Hampshire in the last few days, it was that Barack Obama was going to win, and probably win big.  The only real question was whether Clinton was dead, or just nearly dead.

I completely bought into it, although I covered Democrats far less closely than Republicans.  Part of everyone's belief in the polls was that the surveys seemed to confirm what we were seeing with our own eyes.  I went to an Obama event at a high school in Derry on Sunday, and when I walked up to the school, I saw a crowd snaking and snaking and snaking around the large parking lot.  And then, when I went inside, I found that the gymnasium where Obama would speak was already full.  Even though Clinton was attracting good crowds, seeing a crowd like Obama's made a double-digit lead in the polls seem quite believable, even for reporters who weren't swayed by Obamamania.

01/09 06:35 AMShare