Wednesday, August 22, 2007

More 2008 Paint By Numbers   [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

A Romney intrade surge?  

Candidate futures update (8/21/07)

Hillary gains her largest lead ever in the candidate futures, while Romney surges past Thompson to claim second in the GOP field.

Coming soon to www.politicalprospects.com

In the Republican presidential nomination market, Rudolph Giuliani continues to lead the field, now with a 38.3 share despite a rough article in Sunday’s Washington Post detailing his Kafkaesque transformation from NYC homophile to heartland homophobe, and his temporary cohabitation with a gay couple in Manhattan while mayor. Giuliani continues to lead in national polls, maintains the strongest name ID among GOP voters, but his favorability ratings have dropped seven percent in the last month.

The most interesting story in the GOP, however, is Mitt Romney supplanting Fred Thompson in second place, with a 27.5 share. After dominating the Iowa Straw Poll and holding leads over Giuliani of nearly 10% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney’s share has nearly doubled since mid July. Thompson’s shares have begun to plummet, after poor fundraising, a variety of campaign management shakeups and stories of his Lady MacBeth wife as defacto campaign manager. Thompson is now selling at 21.2, dropping over 40% off of his high in the last month. Rounding out the field is John McCain who, after showing some bounce this week is back down to selling in the 6-7 range, followed by Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul....

08/22 01:39 PMShare