Monday, August 25, 2008

Talabani Watch II   [Michael Rubin]

Talabani still has not been seen in public since August 2, when he flew to the Mayo Clinic. Reuters reported almost two weeks ago that he had had emergency heart surgery. Three days ago, Agence France Presse had reported that Talabani had yet to return to Iraq. Today was the day that initial reports were to have Talabani in Iran, but he is not there, and the Iranian foreign ministry now says that the visit will only happen in the 'future.' No recent photos of Talabani have appeared in his own party's newspaper, Kurdistan Nwe (accessible through www.puk.org).

The only other time the Kurdish press has been so silent was after Masoud Barzani's son Masrour was charged with trying to kill a dissident in Vienna. The status of Kurdish leaders and their families remains too sensitive to touch.

Hopefully, the Iraqi government and PUK press will soon provide more clarity. But Talabani's health scare raises a number of issues:

• In case of his incapacitation or death, will one of the two Vice Presidents (a Sunni Arab and a Shi'a Arab) take over?
• Or will the Kurds demand preservation of the informal ethno-sectarian division of government and demand that the presidency always be retained by a Kurd? (In which case, would there be a reshuffle among current ministers?)
• What happens to the PUK? None of the party's other leaders and former leading officials (Talabani's wife, Hero Khan; former deputy leader Noshirwan Mustafa; former PUK prime ministers Barham Salih or Kosrat Rasul; appear strong enough to consolidate power themselves, even though Kosrat's popularity remains high. Will Barzani simply gobble up the PUK areas and finally unite the Kurds, or will his nepotism, shift in patronage networks, and conservatism chafe the PUK base city of Sulaymani which tends to be more liberal?
• What will happen to Kurdish representation in the United States, which has been manned first by Talabani's brother-in-law and more recently by his young son?
  
• Will Iran or the United States play kingmaker in PUK succession? In Iraqi succession?
  
• Will there be an accounting of Kurds 'disappeared' in recent years by the PUK's intelligence service, run by Talabani's older son?

Hopefully both Talabani is on his road to recovery and the US government has contingency plans to stabilize what could trigger an unpleasant political upheaval.

08/25 11:21 AMShare