Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Completely Baffled   [David Freddoso]

How did Hillary do it? Obama was set to stomp her! I was just watching the returns with a couple of D.C. Democrats, who were not terribly enthusiastic about the result tonight. But no one had an explanation that satisfies me.

I just don't buy the idea that "Hillary cried, Barack died." Was it the Wilder effect? If so, why was it so different in Iowa? There is an explanation out there somewhere. Now the farce in Michigan becomes a feather in Hillary's cap instead of a liability. Her lead in Nevada will likely hold up.

And this could certainly propel her to victory in South Carolina as well...

UPDATE: An excellent point from a reader.

Didn't the Democrats vote in Iowa by non-secret ballot? That would shift the Wilder effect into reverse as participants would have to admit voting against the black candidate in front of their friends and neighbors instead of just an anonymous pollster.

Now I did see several Dems (backers of Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich) in Council Bluffs, Precinct 9, move to Obama as a group at the last minute. I don't know if that explains anything, though...

01/08 11:17 PMShare