Monday, September 28, 2009

The Unemployed Youth   [NRO Staff]

Over the weekend, the New York Post reported:

The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2 percent — a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Dept. — meaning millions of Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time. ...

During previous recessions, in the early '80s, early '90s and after Sept. 11, 2001, unemployment among 16-to-24 year olds never went above 50 percent. Except after 9/11, jobs growth followed within two years.

A much slower recovery is forecast today.

Bob Stein, a senior economist at First Trust Advisors, offers some additional context:

Teen unemployment is so high for a few reasons.

First, the recession.  During recessions, it is typical for the teen jobless rate to rise even more than the overall jobless rate.

Second, we just had a minimum wage hike, so a big jump in teen unemployment in the first month of a higher minimum wage is not surprising.

Third, structurally, immigration has probably crowded out some teens from the workforce.  

UPDATE: Stein adds:

By the way, the jobless rate is 25.5% for teenagers, not the 52.2% reported by the Post. No idea where they got their figure.

09/28 09:00 AMShare