Thursday, March 29, 2007

The Impotence of Great Powers   [Mark Steyn]

Further to my Gromyko reminiscence below, I’ve been getting a lot of sneery e-mails like this:

So, the wise course would have been to bomb Teheran in 1979? What is the wise course today? Turning Teheran into a crater?

You’re missing the point. Because Gromyko credibly threatened to turn Teheran into a crater, he didn’t have to. That’s how deterrence works. What today can Britain and America credibly threaten? Hugh Hewitt interviewed Newt Gingrich yesterday, and Newt proposed the following:

I think there are two very simple steps that should be taken. The first is to use a covert operation or a special forces operation to knock out the only gasoline producing refinery in Iran. There’s only one. And the second is to simply intercede by naval force, and block any tankers from bringing gasoline to Iran… I would right now say to them privately, within the next week, your refinery will no longer work. And within the following week, there will be no tankers arriving. Now if you would like to avoid being humiliated publicly, we recommend you calmly and quietly give them back now. But frankly, if you’d prefer to show the planet that you’re tiny and we’re not, we’re prepared to simply cut off your economy, and allow you to go back to walking and using oxen to pull carts, because you will have no gasoline left.

That’s not a Gromyko you’re-all-gonna-die threat but one that an assertive West could make credibly. But even to hear Newt propose it reminds you of how unlikely it is anyone in Teheran is getting that kind of talk from the British Foreign Office or the Americans. A great power is as great as its credibility. Right now, it’s Britain that’s cratering.

03/29 11:54 AMShare