Wednesday, February 20, 2008

A Dissent On Clinton   [John Hood]

The Clintons are not going to throw in the towel, despite Obama's impressive showing in Wisconsin last night. It's not in their nature, and in their own minds several balls are still in play that could win them the game despite the current odds.

First, they believe — and I think they are correct — that by talking up Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for weeks, they have reduced the political value of Obama's February wins and programmed the media to wait until next month to call the nomination race (it helps matters that the media wants a live race to attract audience and sell to advertisers). Admittedly, they must win all three states for this "February didn't happen" strategy to work, but they still think they can do this.

Second, they believe — and I'm not as sure about this one — that they can woo our old friend John Edwards to endorse Hillary, perhaps after wins in Texas and Ohio on March 4. Such a move would snag them a couple dozen delegates, which in the Democratic proportional-vote system would be like winning a couple of primaries, plus perhaps give them a leg up in the next big-state primary after Pennsylvania's: North Carolina's May 6 contest, with 115 delegates at stake.

Third, they believe — and I haven't seen enough reporting to know whether they are right about this — that there will, in the end, be large delegations seated at the convention from Michigan and Florida, where she won lots of popular votes (some but not all by default). If the primary results are used to apportion them, the Clintons are willing (and they believe able) to weather the resulting storm. If the party uses some other means, such as a hastily called caucus or state convention, they think they can prevail. Haven't they always?

Fourth, the Clintons believe that if these events occur and Obama remains ahead in the delegate count (because the Clinton wins are narrow), it would be by the tiniest of margins, so it wouldn't be seen as illegitimate if superdelegates put her over the top.

Call the Clintons delusional if you wish, but that makes them no different from many other politicians, D and R. Ego is a prerequisite.

02/20 09:27 AMShare