Here's the latest I have, from Numbers USA. Since Tuesday's cloture motion (to bring the amnesty back up for debate) needs 60 votes to succeed, that means 41 senators either have to vote No or just be absent. There are 32 pretty solid No votes for cloture and, assuming Fredo doesn't go and drag Sen. Johnson in from his sickbed, that's 33 against.

The solid No votes on cloture are Alexander (R-Tenn.), Allard (R-Colo.), Baucus (D-Mont.), Byrd (D-W.Va.), Bunning (R-Ky.), Chambliss (R-Ga.), Coburn (R-Okla.), Corker (R-Tenn.), Cornyn (R-Texas), Crapo (R-Idaho), DeMint (R-S.C.), Dole (R-N.C.), Dorgan (D-N.D.), Enzi (R-Wyo.), Grassley (R-Iowa), Hutchison (R-Texas), Inhofe (R-Okla.), Isakson (R-Ga.), Landrieu (D-La.), McCaskill (D-Mo.), Pryor (D-Ark.), Roberts (R-Kan.), Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), Sanders (I-Vt.), Sessions (R-Ala.), Shelby (R-Ala.), Smith (R-Ore.), Stabenow (D-Mich.), Sununu (R-N.H.), Tester (D-Mont.), Thune (R-S.D.), Vitter (R-La.).

That leaves eight votes to get to 41.

The following 12 senators are leaning against the bill itself but so far are leaning toward the cloture motion — which means, in reality, that they would be helping pass the amnesty, because if the bill comes to a final vote, it will pass. These are the Senators whose decisions will likely determine whether the amnesty passes or not: Bond (R-Mo.), Bingaman (D-N.M.), Burr (R-N.C.), Boxer (D-Calif.), Cochran (R-Miss.), Conrad (D-N.D.), Ensign (R-Nev.), Levin (D-Mich.), Gregg (R-N.H.), Nelson (D-Neb.), Hatch (R-Utah), Webb (D-Va.).