Monday, October 30, 2006

Another quick and dirty House guide   [Rich Lowry]

Here's one way to look at the race for the House (Republican candidates come first in the list). First, take ten seats where it looks like Republicans will lose (some of these are gone, some of them could conceivably be saved, but even prudent Republicans aren't counting on it happening): 

AZ-8: Randy Graf v. Gabrielle Giffords
CO-7: Rick O'Donnell v. Ed Perlmutter: It’s just a very tough district for Republicans. Beauprez won there, but he was an excellent candidate and still only eked out the seat in 2002.
FL-16: Joe Negron v. Tim Mahoney:  This could still possibly be doable the GOP.
IN-2: Chris Chocola v. Joe Donnelly: Internal polling shows Chocola closing in the last 2 weeks, near margin of error. He’s been down for a long time, so Republicans consider this a good sign.
IN-8: John Hostettler v. Brad Ellsworth
OH-18: Joy Padgett v. Zack Space
PA-10: Don Sherwood v. Chris Carney
PA-7: Curt Weldon v. Joe Sestak
TX- 22: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs v. Nick Lampson: Republicans still haven’t totally given up on this one. The internal polls have her within the margin of error and rumors have apparently been swirling around the district that Lampson will consider switching parties after the election. So this one is still bubbling a bit.
VA-2: Thelma Drake v. Phil Kellam: She hurt herself with a gaffe last week about Iraq being a vacation outside of a few hotspots. She could still survive, but hurt herself.

Then, there is a second tier of vulnerable seats. If Republicans lose all ten of the above, they can afford to lose just four of these 16 races (almost having to run the table). Also, there is a third tier of races that have recently come into play that aren't as vulnerable and that Republicans think it will take 1,000 to 2,000 points of TV advertising to fix. This is the second tier, with races starred where Republicans think they have a lead that is, at the very least, out of the margin of error: 

*CA-11: Richard Pombo v. Jerry McNerney
FL-13 : Vern Buchanan v. Christine Jennings: Buchanan could still spend his way to victory in this race.
*FL-22: Clay Shaw v. Ron Klein:  Republican polls show Shaw up 4 or 5, but it’s very, very close.
IA-1: Mike Whalen v. Bruce Braley
*IN-9: Mike Sodrel v. Baron Hill
*KY-4: Geoff Davis v. Ken Lucas
MN-6: Michele Bachmann v. Patty Wetterling
NC-11: Charles Taylor v.  Heath Shuler: Shuler’s conservatism has helped put him in to contention, though Taylor could still win of the basis of campaign cash.
NM-1: Heather Wilson v. Patricia Madrid: Its very close, but Wilson is now up with a TV ad that Republicans consider the most devastating of this cycle, simply reproducing a bit from a debate where Madrid couldn’t answer a question about whether she would raise taxes or not.
NY-24: Ray Meier v. Mike Arcuri: It looks bad for Meier, who let himself get defined as a tax-raiser very early on.
*OH-1: Steve Chabot v. John Cranley
OH-15: Deborah Pryce v. Mary Jo Kilroy: Republicans tend to think this one could go either way.
*PA-6: Jim Gerlach v. Lois Murphy
PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick v. Patrick Murphy: Fitzpatrick hasn’t been running a good campaign and hasn’t succeeded in creating good contrasts with Murphy.
*WA-8: Dave Reichert v. Darcy Burner
*WI-8: Gard v. Kagen

In general, Republicans tend to think, as of this moment, the seats that they are going to lose are scandals seats; races where the Republican candidates are running lazy, mistake-prone campaigns; and seats that are just always tough for Republicans. They don't kid themselves about the national environment, but don't think it will be enough to defeat good candidates running good campaigns, limiting the damage and preventing a total wipe-out this year. If they lose, it will only be by a few seats. At least that's the way they see it right now...

10/30 05:26 PMShare