Sunday, September 23, 2007

Mackinac Straw Poll   [David Freddoso]

UPDATE: I'm finally back in DC, and during my flight I received several emails telling me I had the straw poll wrong. (Sorry, I was having laptop problems and running to catch a connecting flight.)

So here it is, corrected:

Romney — 39.12%
McCain — 26.56%
Paul — 10.83%
Giuliani — 10.62%
F. Thompson — 7.15%
Huckabee — 2.55%
Hunter — 1.23%
Tancredo — 0
Brownback —  0.31%

Romney did a bit better, and Giuliani much worse than I was told before I took off from Chicago. Ron Paul came in third — I have to say, Paulites were all over that island. On my ferry ride back, I spoke to a few nice ladies who'd come up all the way from Jackson to support the doctor.

(Also, maybe I should break down and get a PDA.) A couple of notes: 

1) If I got your guy's numbers wrong, it's not because I'm conspiring against him.

2) I never said that Romney "paid" for his results. Only that he paid for a lot of people to attend — like he did at CPAC. It could be considered a demonstration of solvency and organizational strength, but it obviously affects the outcome.

3) No, this is not a scientific survey. It is a straw poll of a handful of active Michigan Republicans who came and paid $100 to attend a conference. Just take it for what it is.

This last point makes McCain's number all the more shocking to me. McCain only won Michigan in 2000 by drawing crossover Democrats — I can't say I know many Republicans who have ever supported McCain, and most people had given him up for dead. I wonder whether conservatives give him another look if Fred Thompson falters?

09/23 04:48 PMShare