Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Re: Mapping the Donors   [John Podhoretz]

Yuval, a few thoughts here on the funding map. First, it's important to note that Giuliani's fundraising only kicked into gear in the middle of February, and he had a huge March. We won't know what kind of donor base he's capable of generating until the end of the second quarter of this year. Second, I'd assume the Romney donor base is as geographically diverse because of (sorry) the presence of Latter-Day Saints in every state in the union.

Finally, fundraising this year isn't going to tell us a huge amount about votes next year. Think of it this way: Obama partisans are thrilled by the 100,000 donors who sent money to him. Those are 100,000 guaranteed votes, probably. But consider this. The potential universe of voters in the February 5 super-duper-shmooper primary, it appears, will number something like 120 million. Those 100,000 guaranteed votes are wonderful, but they are easily swamped.

Obama's success suggests he has mass appeal but it doesn't prove it, and in any case, that kind of enthusiasm among core voters might have meant a lot more in the old traditional primary structure, where he could have upset Hillary in a few early primaries and up-ended her going into Super Tuesday with the Big Mo (though, to be fair, nothing like that ever happened, it only looked like it might happen with Hart in 1984 and McCain in 2000).

Going into the general election, where I think we can all concede the Democrats appear to have a natural edge, the Republican hope is for a candidate who can appeal to independent voters — and who can take advantage of natural Democratic weaknesses should they manifest themselves (especially on national security and economic issues, I would think) and use them to change the dynamic in the weeks before the election.

The best Republican candidate would be a candidate who could do that. I think Rudy could do that, and the fact that you can't rule him out winning (say) New Jersey by peeling off swing voters there is an indicator that he presents a specific strategic possibility for the GOP. Republicans are going to have to consider this very seriously, since it seems more than possible Ohio is gone for the GOP next time. 

04/17 10:24 AMShare