Tuesday, December 04, 2007

The Leveling of the Field   [David Freddoso]

Today's Rasmussen tracking poll shows more signs of an incredible drop in support for the national leaders in both parties. Hillary Clinton is down to 35 percent, from 43 percent two weeks ago, even as her opponents stay flat.

The Republican field, however, is far more interesting. Giuliani has dipped to 18 percent, from 27 percent less than one week ago, and now he shares the lead with...Mike Huckabee?

Giuliani's opponents have only recently started going negative on him, and as I expected months ago there's plenty of negative to go on. The Freedom of Information Law finds on tryst-gate (and send-your-girlfriend-home-on-the-taxpayers'-dime-gate) has clearly been critical in this sudden drop-off.

Now the whole field is leveling off. Only 11 points separate Rudy — who is tied for the lead — from Ron Paul. Fred Thompson continues to drift at 13 percent, just behind John McCain at 14 percent. Huckabee shares the lead at 18 percent nationally. Romney is stuck at 12, despite his lead in New Hampshire and still-strong (but waning) support in Iowa.

There are at least four five viable candidates at this point. That's five six viable candidates if you think Ron Paul's big haul — I predict he'll raise $16 million this quarter and net just slightly less — can translate to something more than lots of heartwarmingly lame You-Tube videos.

Many people here have asserted that Huckabee's success comes as Giuliani's benefit. But is that necessarily true? Given how polls are looking in the early states and nationally, I wonder whether Giuliani will have the strength he needs by Feb. 5. If he performs "pretty well" but fails to clean up that day, we could well end up with no clear leader and a brokered-convention scenario next year.

12/04 12:13 PMShare