Wednesday, February 06, 2008

One-Legged Stool   [Mark R. Levin]

I wonder how many of us believe that if John McCain is the nominee, which is looking more likely, whether he will win New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California. This was the Giuliani strategy. He's losing the conservative vote in virtually every state other than New York and New Jersey. He had won South Carolina but last night lost all the southern states that were in play. He's also losing some of the small but critical red states in places like the mountain states. Moreover, even though there are essentially three candidates in the primary race, McCain as the putative front-runner should be building enough strength within the Republican Party to win core Republican states (or at least more of them). If we look forward to the general election, it's hard to see how he wins the popular vote and it will be very difficult to cobble together the right combination of electoral college votes.

The problem is that McCain has a number of factors working against him, including his own long career of hostility toward the people he needs to win the general election. If you can't consolidate and motivate your base, you will not win the presidency. It has been his strategy to distance himself in numerous and provocative ways from his own party. He has used the tactic of alienation to pander to constituencies outside the party. And he has been so prominent and antagonistic in the execution of his strategy that it's difficult to see how he can overcome his own record. This is one of the reasons why many of us have opposed him from the start, i.e., he will likely be an unelectable stand-bearer and a drain on the rest of the ticket. To say, from one's computer keyboard, that the Reagan coalition should unify behind McCain to prevent the specter of a Clinton or Obama presidency is, I believe, wishful thinking. Even here, where the smartest minds are trying to make the case, some use the perverse argument that Reagan wasn't all that conservative anyway, and that's a reason to back McCain. Not only does this defy history, but it offends those who lived through that history and were shaped by it. Moreover, Republican voters won't buy it. McCain is sitting on a one-legged stool, having broken the two other legs.

I think one important focus of Reagan conservatives should be to do all they can to protect as many Republican seats in the House as possible. There needs to be at least one elected part of our government that might be in a position to stem what could be a very unpleasant four years.

02/06 09:57 AMShare