Tuesday, January 22, 2008

David Brooks and Huckabee, Cont.   [Rich Lowry]

Brooks writes of Huckabee today, "Huckabee has done very well among evangelicals while loudly deviating from conservative economic orthodoxy." Well, yes. But this is a far cry from the grandiose claims Brooks made about Huckabee after Iowa—that he understands "we have a crisis of authority in this country" and "how middle-class anxiety is really lived," and his victory "opens up the way for a new coalition."  

No, what Huckabee did in Iowa was appeal to a segment of a segment of the Republican base, and that's it. It's what he did everywhere. In Iowa, he won 46% of evangelicals, in New Hampshire 28%, in Michigan 29%, and in South Carolina 40%. What's amazing about this is that Huckabee has been running a campaign pitched explicitly to these voters, and still a majority of them have gone someplace else. Why? Probably because they are conservatives and are looking for a plausible conservative candidate and Huckabee is not it. And I'd guess that the criticisms from Rush and others helped convince them Huckabee isn't such a candidate. So Huckabee is not the best example to use to try to prove the impotence of conservative leaders. 

Another point: it's important not to set unreasonable standards here. As Ramesh (Ponnuru, not Steyn) reminds us in the new issue of NR, in 1996 Phil Gramm was the conservative favorite and he collapsed, while two candidates the conservative establishment didn't like, Pat Buchanan and Bob Dole, racked up the most votes. Did this mean the end of conservatism as we knew it? No. It meant Phil Gramm wasn't likable as a candidate, Pat Buchanan was a great campaigner, and Bob Dole happened to be the most acceptable alternative to the party.

 

Similarly, if McCain wins this year, it won't be the end of conservatism or the end of the influence of talk radio (or of The Corner!), but a function of the weakness of the rest of the field. Conservative leaders can't make Fred Thompson a better campaigner or make Mitt Romney seem more authentic. Our national politics obviously isn't putty in their hands. But they are still influential, which is why Huckabee found it so hard to get out of evangelical box and lurched right on the issues, while McCain is being given the very sound advice to try to appeal to the right in the coming weeks and even pay Rush a house call.

01/22 11:48 AMShare