Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Thompson vs. Romney   [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

The midweek message of the Fred Thompson: We're kicking Olympic a**.

G version: Move over, Romney. It's a whole new GOP race out here.

I think it may be a wee bit early (has it even been a week?) to cite trends, but numbers do make a memo. This just went out from the Freds of Fred Thompson: 

McLaughlin & Associates

To:       Bill Lacy, Todd Harris
From:  John McLaughlin, Jim McLaughlin
Date:   September 11, 2007
Re:       National Poll Trends

This week’s round of new national polls is extremely encouraging.  All are trending up for Fred Thompson.  The CBS/NYTimes poll shows a gain of 15 points from a month ago.  CNN shows us in a statistical tie for the lead, and the Rasmussen poll of likely Republican primary voters shows Fred Thompson in the lead.

Rasmussen:

9/4/07	9/10/07	Net Diff
Giuliani	24%	21%	-3
Thompson	23	28	+5
McCain	11	12	+1
Romney	11	11	—
Net Gain FDT			+8

Time/CNN:

8/7/07	9/9/07	Net Diff
Giuliani	27%	28%	+1
Thompson	19	27	+8
McCain	14	15	+1
Romney	11	11	—
Net Gain FDT			+7

CBS/NYTimes:

8/12/07	9/9/07	Net Diff
Giuliani	38%	27%	-11
Thompson	18	22	+4
McCain	12	18	+6
Romney	13	14	+1
Net Gain FDT			+15

USAToday/Gallup:

8/5/07	9/8/07	Net Diff
Giuliani	32%	34%	+2
Thompson	19	22	+3
McCain	11	12	+1
Romney	14	13	-1
Net Gain FDT			+1

Fred Thompson has clearly become the conservative alternative to Rudy Giuliani, while John McCain remains mostly flat and Mitt Romney is flat or declining.  We agree with this analysis:

“Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement.”  (“The Thompson Bounce,” Scott Rasmussen; RasmussenReports.com, 9/10/07)

While good polls come and go, we have clearly moved into a competitive position following a good campaign launch.

Earlier in the day, Todd Harris of Team Thompson called Romney's campaign "flailing."


Asked to respond to the two, Romney spokesman Kevin Madden tells me:

National polls would matter a great deal more if there was a national party primary.  But there isn’t one.  Instead, we have state-by-state primaries and in the early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire where Republican voters are most engaged, we are in a very strong position.

The trendline of national over the last few months has been very encouraging.  The more voters get to know Governor Romney, the better he does.  We’ve gone from single digits to double digits pretty steadily, even against opponents like Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani who are much, much better known than Gov. Romney.

Fred Thompson got in toward the top of the polls, which is what we expected given his name recognition level.  We’re doing all the hard work necessary to keep gaining steadily and doing so with a positive message and big ideas.  We feel that’s where our competitive advantage is and that’s what will help Mitt Romney earn the nomination when the votes are counted.

UPDATE: That's, uh, not all Todd said....

09/11 07:00 PMShare