Monday, April 09, 2007
Dueling Estimates [Stanley Kurtz]
On the subject of competing estimates of the timing of an Iranian bomb, compare this Associate Press report to the one I linked from Reuters, below. The Reuters report implied that with 3,000 working centrifuges, Iran could perhaps have enough fuel for a bomb within a year. But according to the Associated Press, "Experts say the Natanz plant needs between 50,000 to 60,000 centrifuges to consistently produce fuel for a reactor or build a warhead." That seems very different from the Reuters report.
So who’s right? And if Iran kicks out the inspectors, as seems likely, who will even know how many centrifuges are at work at a given moment? Expect to see a lot of argument about just when the ingredients for an Iranian bomb might be present, and about the stage in the process at which we have to start acting as though we are "past the point of no return."
04/09 10:29 AM
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