Wednesday, January 09, 2008

No Mentum   [Stanley Kurtz]

The emerging view of the Republican race seems to be that a McCain win in Michigan would essentially kill off Romney, leaving McCain as the likely nominee. Giuliani could stop McCain in theory, but given his recent disappearance from the scene, Giuliani would find this tough to do. This analysis strikes me as unconvincing. It seems at least as likely that we’re on the road to a drawn-out battle, quite possibly unresolved till convention time.

This will probably not be a momentum-based campaign. If all the Republican candidates held roughly similar views (as with this year’s Dems), then a Romney loss in Michigan might be decisive. But in the Republican race, Romney holds a place (fairly mainstream conservative across the board) matched by no other candidate. Given the resistance of some portion of the conservative base to every other candidate, Romney would be foolish to drop out, even after a loss in Michigan. In fact, Romney stands to capitalize on what may well be the next big development in the race, the (relative) rise of Giuliani, at McCain’s expense.

If McCain wins, or simply does very well in Michigan, he will begin to look (incorrectly, in my view) like the inevitable nominee. That will launch an intense campaign of scrutiny by the Republican base to see if they can truly wrap their minds around the idea of a McCain presidency. The results will be inconclusive.

McCain is certainly more conservative than Giuliani on abortion. That’s his strongest weapon for potentially uniting the party. But in addition to an extremely serious immigration problem (which I think will become more salient, not less, as McCain’s lead increases), McCain has differences with the party on any number of domestic issues.

The real danger is that a President McCain will tear the party apart with damaging triangulation on a wide range of domestic issues. After the immigration fiasco in Washington, the air went out of Republican tires. Imagine that kind of discouragement all the time, over a whole series of domestic issues. The potential of a triangulating McCain administration to tear the party apart will keep Romney alive, and prompt others to take a second look at Giuliani.

Of course Giuliani has a problem on the social issues, but Giuliani would likely run a far more conventionally conservative presidency across the board than McCain. McCain delights liberals and loves to work with them. Giuliani infuriates liberals and if anything loves sticking it to them. That means that momentum aside, Giuliani will likely cut seriously into McCain’s lead on Super-Tuesday.

At that point, if he’s been smart enough to stay in the race, Romney will be in a position to benefit from the raging battle between McCain and Giuliani. That will allow all three candidates to make it to the convention. Huckabee is a bit of a wild card here. He may turn out to be a one hit wonder. But even if Huckabee soldiers on, it won’t change the basic picture. Huckabee’s evangelical support may be enough to keep him alive, but Huck’s unconventional views won’t allow him to gain clear front-runner status.

With so many Republican candidates distancing themselves from some key part of the base, no candidate will find it easy to consolidate the support of seemingly defeated rivals. With a field holding so many candidates who speak for competing wings of the party, and excluding others, the logic is for candidates to stay in the race as the last best hope of their base, and to prevent the "horror scenarios" represented by the alternatives. Momentum is out and substance is in.

01/09 10:23 AMShare