Friday, September 01, 2006

Who Won?   [Andrew Stuttaford]

I hope Charles Krauhammer is correct in talking about Hezbollah's defeat, but these comments from Sheri Berman (an associate professor of political science at Columbia) and Gideon Rose (managing editor of Foreign Affairs magazine) in the Financial Times today are worth bearing in mind:

"Now that the ceasefire is in place in Lebanon, the battle over reconstruction has begun and once again Hizbollah is emerging as the victor. Drawing on financial support from Iran, its grassroots social network and its reputation for honesty and effectiveness, the militant organisation is using the rebuilding effort to lock in its new popularity and status. Its post-conflict success raises yet another dilemma for Europeans and Americans, who want to help the Lebanese recover from the fighting but have no desire to work with radical Islamists or solidify their standing.How has a terrorist group managed to pull off such a feat, performing functions that the Lebanese government cannot and establishing a de facto monopoly on local relief operations? By exploiting the opportunities afforded by civil society, supposedly one of the pillars of a healthy polity...The passion, energy and efficiency that Hizbollah activists are bringing to the rebuilding of southern Lebanon and to caring for its population are impressive. Unfortunately, their efforts constitute not a boon for the country but rather a serious challenge, and drive Lebanese citizens’ attention and loyalties even further away from the national state and healthy democratic politics. The ultimate problem in Lebanon, as elsewhere in Middle East, is political: a floundering state created the opening for movements such as Hizbollah to seize, and only a thriving one can stop those challengers in their tracks."

Everyone will have to come their own views as to whether the recent war made it more or less likely that the Lebanese state will 'flounder', but what this (and other commentary like it) makes clear is that Western aid to the Lebanon should be generous, effective and quick. Nature may abhor a vacuum. Hezbollah does not.

09/01 11:41 AMShare