Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The Huck Factor   [John Hood]

Looking at the exits, it seems clear to me that if John McCain edges Mitt Romney tonight, it will be because of the effect of Mike Huckabee splitting the base conservative vote with Romney. You can see it on the abortion questions, the church-going questions, and others. If Huck wasn't in the race, or was closer to Ron Paul in support, Romney's total would tick up several points.

The old Rudy Giuliani scenario was to count on multiple GOP candidates splitting the conservative vote and giving him time to gather momentum, most likely with a win in Florida. It turns out that this was a reasonable scenario, just not for Rudy. It would further make sense if, as some are reporting, the mayor will be endorsing the senator soon.

01/29 08:58 PMShare