Monday, August 04, 2008

Race and the Race   [Lisa Schiffren]

In this interesting WSJ column noted in the web briefing, Juan Williams analyzes recent data to figure out to what extent white voters will not vote for Senator Obama due to racial prejudice. Some white voters admit to discomfort with a black candidate. Others say they are comfortable. Still others are undecided. And some are lying, of course. How the undecideds break, and how many are not admitting to discomfort with Obama will determine how well he does in November.

The one highly relevant datum that Mr. Williams and all of his polls does not and cannot measure is, to my mind, the most important one: How many white undecideds, and even whites who claim to pollsters that they are comfortable with a black candidate — but ultimately will not vote for Senator Obama in the privacy of the voting booth, are reacting to this particular man, as opposed to the racial category? My guess is, a lot.

How many white Democrats would have no hesitation if the black candidate were 58 instead of 48, and had been a general, and was a proponent of moderately liberal policies instead of very liberal ones? What if he had worked in the private sector for 15 years, made money and gone into politics, instead of being a community organizer and second tier academic? What if the black candidate in question had been a two-term governor of a medium-sized state and had instituted significant, measurable reforms? What if his parents were both people most Americans could relate to, and he hadn't gone to a radical church? Of course you can't measure counterfactuals, but individual details matter a lot, as we saw with another candidate this season.

What if Hillary Clinton had become a U.S. senator from New York without having been First Lady, and had a husband who was not such a known quantity, with so much baggage? Would any of that have made the difference for her? Very possibly.

It is impossible, as the poet said, to separate the dancer from the dance. It is expected, but offensive nonetheless, for pollsters to assume that people's doubts about Senator Obama of the very thin resume and wildly shifting views, are a good proxy for their doubts about the leadership potential of any/all black candidates. It is that much more offensive to assume that it all boils down to racism.

08/04 11:37 AMShare