Monday, January 28, 2008

One last poll   [David Freddoso]

Matt Braynard sends along a final Florida poll: 

A Braynard Methodology Survey, conducted January 28 among 500 likely registered Republican voters (MOE 4% /w 95% confidence level).
 
Final Results:
 
            Candidate        Percentage
            Romney            37.8%
            McCain             35.7%
            Huckabee         12.4%
            Giuliani             11.4%
            Paul                   2.7%
 
“While McCain prevails among the over 65 age group who are retirees, Romney gets the win from strong support among those who are still in the workforce. The further the voter is from retirement and the more they depend on a strong economy to provide them with jobs, the more strongly they identify with Romney’s economy-focused message. Among voters aged 45-54, Romney’s support doubles McCain’s.”

The difference in Matt's method, he says, is that he calls pre-screened likely voters instead of letting random respondents self-identify as "registered" or "likely" voters. Tomorrow night we'll find out just how accurate he is.

In the meantime, as I sit in a hotel room in East Tampa and finish up a piece for the morning, I just saw a McCain ad on FOX News. One little problem, though — no audio!

01/28 11:52 PMShare