Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Battleground Virginia   [James S. Robbins]

The Real Clear Politics "no toss ups" electoral map currently shows McCain winning with 274-264 electoral votes. This is also the most feasible McCain victory scenario, i.e., if he wins, this map is his best shot. It illustrates several important aspects of the race. For example, Virginia is not a certainty for McCain, and if he loses the Old Dominion's 13 electoral votes they would be hard to make up. On the other hand, the McCain campaign is reportedly devoting a great deal of ad money to Pennsylvania, and if the Keystone State moves into his column, Obama could take Virginia and Colorado and still lose. Note though that as things stand right now Pennsylvania has not trended significantly away from Obama, and Virginia is a toss up. This is a good reason for Obama to pick Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine as his running mate, and for the McCain people to shift resources to Va. pronto.

08/20 12:57 AMShare