Saturday, December 08, 2007

That Newsweek Iowa Poll   [Rich Lowry]

People I've checked in with are very skeptical. But about this there can do no doubt—Huckabee is ahead in Iowa. It will be interesting to see where he tops out, but for now the trajectory continues to be upward. Then, the question is whether he has enough of an organization to get out his vote. I actually agree with Ambinder that there's a silver lining here for Romney in how the expectations are being re-set in Iowa—a narrow defeat now would look a lot different for him, and a victory would be much more meaningful. But there's a deeper point. Part of Romney's problem is that people (fairly or not) think he has never struggled, and here he finally has some adversity. He's got to make the most of it, which means not just coming back, but doing it the right way. He cannot seem desperate or be seen to do any more pandering. He's got to try to maintain the tone he set Thursday. Ideally, from Romney's perspective, he'll be the candidate of common purpose compared to Huckabee's sectarianism; the candidate of seriousness about policy compared to Huckabee's seat-of-the-pants approach; the candidate of sound conservative solutions to the anxieties that Huckabee has hit on compared to Huckabee's big government populism. This isn't going to be easy, given his opponent is likable, a deft politician, and has built in support of at least 25%. But it's not adversity for nothing. If Romney can get out of Iowa with his political character intact and maybe even enhanced, then even if he suffers a narrow loss, he'll  be able to fight on in New Hampshire, which is projecting at the moment to be a death-match between Romney and McCain—whoever loses is out.   

12/08 12:08 AMShare