Sunday, March 09, 2008

Will Obama Blink?   [Rich Lowry]

Long ago, Hillary lost her ability to win the Democratic nomination cleanly in the primaries and caucuses—she'd have to pick off super-delegates in a drawn-out fight. Now, Obama finds himself in a similar situation. Last Tuesday he had a chance to end the race by winning Ohio or Texas and making it unsustainable for Hillary to go on. He won neither. It's still possible to imagine Obama forcing Hillary out with unexpected wins in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, but it doesn't seem likely.

Anti-Clinton liberal pundits are insisting that her campaign is still a lost cause, because of "the math," i.e., Obama will have more pledged delegates. That will supposedly force the super-delegates to go with Obama. But if the race is essentially a tie and Obama has won a lot of delegates in caucuses that are less representative than the primaries, why should super-delegates be bound by Obama's tiny lead in pledged delegates? It isn't written in the rules anywhere that that's what they have to do—in fact, the opposite. They can decide on whatever grounds they like. This Washington Post piece suggests many of them will decide on the basis of who would be the strongest candidate against McCain and be the best president.

That's why this race is wide open. Perceptions of the candidates are still in flux and can change over-night, as we saw last Tuesday. If Hillary finishes with a strong kick—winning Pennsylvania and re-votes in Florida and Michigan—she's going to look even stronger than she does now, and Obama even weaker. The race will be an absolute toss-up, and super-delegates are going to look for a deal.

The obvious one is putting Obama and Clinton on the same ticket. But who goes on top? This is the question that could be a real gut check for Obama. We know Hillary is willing to go all the way to the convention, and if necessary, damage Obama's candidacy with a destructive floor fight. Would Obama do the same thing? Does he have the same undeniable will to power and the willingness to put aside all considerations of decorum and party interest to fight for the nomination? I doubt it. And I imagine the Hillary people doubt it; they probably think they can stare Obama down in a monumental game of chicken, that ultimately he blinks and takes the number two slot.

Such a deal would make a lot of sense: Obama would be getting a vice-presidential nomination that he presumably would have been delighted with a year ago, that suits his experience level, and that would probably keep him from having to go back to the U.S. Senate, which he doesn't appear to relish. And he could convince himself that this is the right thing for his party and the country (Hillary wouldn't be so moved by such considerations). It would be the only way to end the race cleanly before the convention.

I remember reading a profile of a famous boxing trainer who said he always guarded against his fighters implicitly giving up against an opponent, letting an opponent win just because it's easier. That's the temptation Obama could face, and it will take all the intestinal fortitude he can muster to resist it.

03/09 05:32 PMShare