Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Specter of '68   [Stephen Spruiell]

My forecast for the next six months: A long, divisive battle for the Democratic nomination that helps John McCain:

At Hillary Clinton’s post-election party at the Columbus Athenaeum early Tuesday evening, a reporter asked Ohio Governor Ted Strickland whether Clinton would exit the race if she lost Ohio, as some of Barack Obama’s supporters had called for her to do. He responded with a story about Ted Kennedy. Strickland grew increasingly agitated as he explained that his father, who lived into his 90s, never forgave Kennedy for taking his campaign against incumbent president Jimmy Carter all the way to the 1980 Democratic convention, embarrassing the party and, as Strickland tells it, “hand[ing] the election to Ronald Reagan.”

Strickland’s point was that Kennedy, who is supporting Obama, “has no right to tell Hillary Clinton what to do.” But it seemed to be an odd way to defend Clinton’s decision to stay in the race. Clinton and Obama have spent much of the past two weeks trying to do as much damage to each other as possible. If their race goes on, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that John McCain will face a significantly weakened opponent in the fall.

Kevin Drum thinks Democrats shouldn't worry too much about this. He argues that however bad the infighting gets, it won't be as bad as 1968.

Well, I'll give him that, but how many Democrats can really take comfort from the comparison? For one thing, Nixon won. Drum observes that it was close, but several commenters counter that Alabama governor George Wallace, running as an independent, carried five southern states that probably would have gone to Nixon.

A closer comparison might be Ted Kennedy's refusal to concede to Jimmy Carter until the 1980 Democratic convention, which, if you ask Gov. Strickland, didn't work out so well for Democrats either.

03/05 03:20 PMShare