Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Ron numbers   [Mark Steyn]

Re David Freddoso's posts on Ron Paul's $4 million haul yesterday: When David talks about "those for whom a sustained Iraq occupation is not a make-or-break issue" taking a second look at Ron, there would seem to be an obvious testing ground for that thesis - New Hampshire. 

For Granite State small-government voters, "staying the course " in Iraq is not as important as the GOP's reversing course on fiscal responsibility and other domestic issues. (That was one of the reasons for the 2006 Republican debacle in NH.) Ron Paul has raised a ton of money from small contributors in the state. As I drive around the three northern counties - Coos, Grafton and Carroll - the only Republican candidate for whom there is any visible lawn-sign and bumper-sticker enthusiasm remains Ron Paul. Several friends of mine in the Grafton and Coos county grassroots structure who, while eternally cranky and dissatisfied, nevertheless stuck with the GOP establishment candidate in 1992, 1996 and 2000 are now organizing for Paul. For the first time that I can remember, the Republican booth at the North Haverhill Fair was so short of volunteers that it was unmanned for significant stretches of the day - yet across the aisle a "Libertarians for Paul" stand was doing roaring business. Etc.

But still the late October numbers in New Hampshire show Ron stalled at 1% or doubling his support to an impressive 2%. In '92 and '96, the polls underestimated Pat Buchanan's support - especially in the small towns up north - and left the primary-night network news shows with a lot of hilariously irrelevant Lamar Alexander profiles, but the polls didn't show Pat stalled below the margin of error. 

If Paul is a serious spoiler who can derail mainstream candidates and reframe the debate, doesn't that have to start showing in the numbers? Like the song says: Oh, baby, what he couldn't do/With Plenty Of Money And You. He seems to have the first half of that coalition sewn up. Where's the latter?

11/06 08:45 AMShare