Monday, January 21, 2008

For Mark — on Rudy   [Lisa Schiffren]

Do you really need to hear this? Yes, Rudy's strategy is looking particularly dark and dumb right this minute. There is still a chance that he will come up with creditable numbers on Super Tuesday, and on February 5th. As vast numbers of e-mailers keep reminding me, they have not yet had a chance to vote, and, as it happens, neither have I. Though, why Romney or McCain would defer to him at this point, even if he does pretty well, is beyond me. Even though I firmly believe he would make a better president. (I supported Phil Gramm, too.)

So, being a pessimist by nature I think he blew it (and will be delighted to be proved wrong). His strategy clearly relied too much on somewhat evanescent national numbers, and the kind of talk that strategists love of odds and percentages, but which does not relate much to the real impulses of real voters on the ground at a particular moment.  While I share his apparent view that the current primary system is irrational, by not really contesting he failed to take into account  "the psychology of the individual,"  which wants to see the candidate, hear from him, and watch him in defeat and victory. Specifically, he seemed to forget that old maxim — "out of sight, out of mind." 

Anyway (unless he pulls it out) this will go down in the political playbooks as a classic example of what not to do, even if you can convince yourself that it could work. In politics as in life, it seems that showing up is 80 percent of the battle.

01/21 12:36 PMShare