Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Opium Wars [Andrew Stuttaford]
Iain, I'm still selling (so to speak). My starting point is that there is a worldwide shortage (the estimate comes from the Senlis Council ) of opiates for medical use of roughly 10,000 tonnes of opium equivalent a year. Those numbers have been challenged, but the gist of the objection to them is that the developed world relies too much on opiates for pain relief, itself a dubious assertion, and so I'll stick with the Senlis estimates. Afghanistan produces approximately 4,000 tonnes of opium each year, so if the Senlis numbers are even roughly correct, the entire Afghan crop (and more) could be used to meet the current shortage.
So here we have a desperately poor country that has a crop for which there is a proven "legitimate" demand and for which it actually has some sort of competitive advantage (opium harvesting is labor intensive, and thus relies on cheap labor), but which is not allowed to sell that crop. That seems absurd. What's more, if we're talking about the laws of supply and demand, it has to be remembered that an earlier attempt to destroy the crop seems to have been counter-productive. By squeezing supply, it increased prices and created an additional incentive to grow more the following year, while at the same time creating additional political support for the Taliban. As cunning plans go, that doesn't seem to be the best.
Do I think there's a danger that the result of allowing Afghans to sell their opium to pharmaceutical companies will be to create an 'opium mountain' to rank with the produce mountains created by the EU's Common Agricultural Policy? I'd be very surprised, but even if it does, so what? Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world, a little income support wouldn't hurt. In fact, it might well do some good.
As for legalization, you wisely dodge that endless controversy on the grounds that it's never going to happen. You are probably right, but it's still well worth remembering that the current approach effectively acts as a generous subsidy to the Taliiban, al Qaeda and, almost certainly, numerous other terrorist groups, but so long as everyone's O.K. with that...
09/13 06:44 AM
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