Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Volatility Ahead in Florida   [Rich Lowry]

With Fred out of the race and Huckabee not campaigning heavily in Florida, the state is going to be even more volatile. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Fred and Huck were splitting 25 percent of the vote in Florida (12 and 13 respectively). According to Survey USA, they were splitting 21 percent (7 and 14 respectively). We know from prior experience that when a candidate doesn't campaign intensely in a state—and Huckabee won't even be on the air in Florida—his vote diminishes dramatically. So that's probably a good chunk of voters up for grabs, especially when you put them together with people who decide late anyway. I would think this thing is lining up ideally for Romney in Florida—as basically a race between him and two more moderate candidates running heavily on national security (which suggests that perhaps he was better off with McCain winning South Carolina). But who knows how it will bounce.

01/22 05:21 PMShare