Monday, November 19, 2007

Thompson in NH   [David Freddoso]

From a New Hampshire reader of the Corner:

I read Thompson's columns over the summer with interest, and, despite misgivings over campaign finance, I was looking forward to his entry into the race.  Then — nothing. 
 
I live in northern NH, and have been politically active locally, as well as a donor several times.  I have talked in person to Romney at some length, and have been invited to events with Guiliani and McCain, which I didn't attend...From Thompson — nothing....NH voters tend to be politically engaged.  Of course, media, GOTV, and so on, are critical, but so is actually being here, asking for our vote — and answering our questions.  Where's Fred?

I know, you non-Granite-staters are going to say he's spoiled, etc. But really, if your state had something cool like this, you'd want to keep it too, wouldn't you?

One important caveat about Thompson's numbers is that his people don't expect to do well in New Hampshire. There's a lot of market saturation there, as Romney, Rudy and McCain (and now Paul) are all super-active in the state, spending tons of money. Thompson must spend his money on Iowa and South Carolina — that's always been his only way of winning.

Okay, so now a question:

[Neither Thompson] nor Huckabee poll very high.  When is the last time during a primary (dem or rep) has a Southerner fared well in NH?

Great question. I'm assuming that we're talking about open years, when there was a serious race. The last time would be 1992, when Bill Clinton finished second, reviving his campaign. Before him, Carter won in 1976. Counting Lyndon Johnson's contested victory of 1968 (before he dropped out), you'd then have to go all the way back to Estes Kefauver, who won in 1956.

UPDATED: On the Republican side, no southerner has ever done terribly well in New Hampshire. None, ever, from what I can tell, unless you want to count George H.W. Bush as a Texan, which I hesitate to do. I am, of course, ready to be contradicted, since my political memory does not go back nearly that far...

11/19 10:38 PMShare