Thursday, January 10, 2008
Skipping SC? [Rich Lowry]
Let's say, Romney doesn't win Michigan. That might be it for him. But what if he finishes a very strong second to McCain? That won't give Romney any real momentum into South Carolina presumably. But would it make sense for him to take a page from his rivals and skip a state, hoping that the frontrunner at that point, McCain, is taken down by Huckabee? If McCain wins South Carolina, well then, it could be over. But if Huckabee (or, less likely, Thompson) wins, the field stays scrambled and Romney can fight in Florida where Rudy is still strong and can sap some of McCain's vote and where Huckabee won't be playing on as friendly territory as in Iowa and South Carolina? Just a thought. It would be a Rudy-esque long shot strategy, much weaker than Romney's initial early-state momentum strategy that has now been trashed by Huckabee and McCain.
UPDATE:
E-mail:
Hi, Mr. Lowry:
It does make sense for Romney to skip SC. He is third in Rasmussen’s rolling poll with 16%, behind McCain (27%) and Huckabee (24%). He has gone dark here so it’s probably safe to assume he won’t experience much of an increase between now and next Tuesday and may drop further. Even a win in MI would only give him three campaign days (Wed-Fri) to go back on-line here.
I do disagree with one of your comments, though. There is a good chunk of evangelical voters in Florida, especially in the middle of the state (the last poll I saw had Huckabee second there). If there are three fairly strong candidates splitting the non-evangelical vote that just increases Huckabee’s chances of winning the state. Getting down to two anti-Hucks significantly increases the odds of him losing there. I have come to the conclusion that we are in a fight for the soul of the Republican Party and that it is as important to stop Huckabee as to get any of the other candidates nominated. If that means McCain and Giuliani are the two left standing in FL to take Huckabee on, so be it.
E-mail:
Subject: RE: Skipping SC
I think it's a good strategy idea. I wonder how it's done in practical terms. Pull ads, jawboning — saying I'm not competing in SC. But, what does he say to his supporters there and his infrastructure? Go home? I think he keeps supporting that until the SC primary, so in reality, it's just writing it off and letting what he has done there be enough, no more appearances in SC. Perhaps in Florida as well to see if Giuliani gets whacked?
In this election, it seems like, with no frontrunner, each candidate can cherry-pick their battles. And this is all the perception battle. If the media allows the others to get away with it, so can he. This is like one of those pro-wrestling matches where sometimes one guy sits on the sidelines, then whacks another guy, then two former allies whack each other, then the team up again to whack another guy. Romney would do well to leave SC to McCain and Huckabee, and watch SC do to McCain what they did eight years ago. It would be a whole lot more fun for Romney to watch it from the sidelines than to be the target himself….
01/10 03:10 PM
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