Tuesday, July 03, 2007

The Post-McCain Field   [John Hood]

With John McCain's demise as a presidential candidate becoming more widely recognized, it's worth considering how his exit might affect the Republican nomination race.

I think the big winner is Fred Thompson, with Mitt Romney gaining a little, too and Rudy Giuliani losing (he has always needed a large field to maintain his footing in a race where he is the odd man out ideologically). Thompson will probably pick up most of McCain's support in South Carolina and become the early leader there (by the way, it is expected that SC will move its GOP primary so that it remains with or ahead of Florida's). In Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney will retain a lead post-McCain unless Giuliani picks up the vast majority of McCain supporters, which would be a stretch. McCain did not seem to be much of a factor in Nevada, perhaps surprisingly, but Thompson and Romney were already strongest there. Haven't seen any polling out of Wyoming, which holds a Republican contest on the same day as the New Hampshire primary.

That leaves Florida, Giuliani's only strong January state. If Thompson picks up lots of McCain's voters there and makes it a race, the mayor will be in trouble. I just don't buy that the early states don't matter anymore because of Feb. 5. The January contests will get a huge, huge amount of media attention. Actually, it will be very expensive to run paid campaigns in all those Feb. 5 states, so free media out of January will be crucial. Rudy, meet Howard.

07/03 10:01 AMShare