Checking In... - Jonathan Martin - The Corner on National Review Online

Monday, November 13, 2006

Political Washington today is focused on three fronts. On one end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Topic A remains Iraq, and the forthcoming Baker report and Gates hearings. Up the Hill, members return to the Capitol today for a lame-duck session that will be dominated this week by leadership contests. Everywhere else, the focus is on the above and the fast-developing '08 road to the White House news (Vilsack in, Feingold out, McCain putting his first toes in the water). Because I've got a weakness for Hill leadership contests, I'll start there with the House Minority Leader race.

First off, all these contests differ from the last one we saw (for Majority Leader in January) in that the candidates aren't, at least for now, circulating names of supporters. That will probably come as good news to those of you who don't care to follow the preference of every obscure rank-and-file member, but is sad for those of us who like to keep score at home.

As for the horserace, multiple GOP sources say that the contest for Min Leader isn't much of a contest at all. They say current Maj Leader John Boehner has solid backing in the conference and will win with ease this Friday morning when the secret ballots are cast. Many acknowledge that there is a hunger for change after last Tuesday's losses, but they say RSC chair/Rep. Mike Pence (R., Ind.) is not a popular alternative. Few give Energy & Commerce Committee chair Joe Barton (R., Tex.) much of a shot, though he could pick up backing from fellow Texans and members of his committee.Holed up in his Capitol office, Boehner is devoting his time to member contacts, not media appearances. Key Boehner allies in the effort include Rep's Pat Tiberi (R., Ohio), Mike Rogers (R., Mich.), and Dave Reichert (R., Wash.).

Despite the conventional wisdom, Pence's camp is confident. A source there says that the Friday entry of Barton into the race has "made the dynamic more interesting" and could scramble the arithmetic. Pence has been working the phones in Indiana and is flying back to D.C. today. Like Boehner, he's primarily engaged with the "inside game" of member-to-member contacts and is doing little outside press. Pence's bid is being run by Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R., Tex.). Other top advocates include Rep's Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.), Scott Garrett (R., N.J.) and Trent Franks (R., Ariz.). As for why they aren't sharing their list of commitments, a Pence source deadpanned, "Because we saw how well that worked out for Roy Blunt." Blunt, the current Whip, went in to the Maj Leader race in January claiming the necessary votes, only to fall just short on the first ballot before losing the run-off.

Their first day back, and the knives are already out.