Saturday, September 22, 2007

Who Can Beat Hillary?   [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

One GOP campaigner reminds me that a Jan. 10, 1980 Gallup Poll had Reagan trailing Carter 63 percent to 32 percent.

March 1980 analysis from a columnist at the Globe and Mail:

THE PRESIDENT of the United States from 1980 to 1984 will be one of the following three people: Jimmy Carter, Howard Baker or Gerald Ford.

It's rather early in the election season for such pointed speculation. But a look at the situation reveals that the prediction is not all that chancy.

It is now almost certain that Mr. Carter is going to be the Democratic nominee. Ronald Reagan is the most likely choice for the Republican nomination, but he could not beat Jimmy Carter in the fall. Nor could George Bush.

Mr. Baker and Mr. Ford are the only two Republicans with a shot at the nomination who could defeat the incumbent President.

Republican candidate John Anderson, a dark horse, said the other day that if the Republicans nominate Mr. Reagan it's political suicide. He's right. Most polls show that, going head-to-head against Mr. Carter, Mr. Reagan would lose by 2-1. The former California governor would be the Barry Goldwater of 1980. He is too right-wing to appeal to enough moderates to win and he is too prone to incredible gaffes.

09/22 11:10 AMShare