Monday, April 09, 2007

Industrial Iran   [Stanley Kurtz]

Iran has just announced that it has entered the "industrial stage" of nuclear fuel production. Iran also plans to expand its newly functioning "industrial" set of 1,000 centrifuges to 3,000. "With 3,000 machines, Iran could make enough material for a bomb in one year, if it wanted, Western experts say," reports Reuters. This is very important news.

As I’ve said before, the presidential campaign is likely to turn as much on the question of Iran as Iraq, if not more so. If we take the Reuters estimate as a baseline, it’s reasonable to believe that the Iranians could well be a nuclear power by sometime within the first year of the new president’s term. Some would argue that even moving well into the industrial production stage would put Iran past the "point of no return" before the election.

All of these estimates will be hotly disputed. Some will say that we are still "five to ten years away" from an Iranian bomb–and will say it every year. Others will note that, once Iran is well into "industrial" production, other nations will have to begin acting as though Iran is nuclear, as a prudent precautionary measure. That could give Iran de facto nuclear status shortly.

The outcome of all this is uncertain. On balance, I think the Iran issue will help the Republicans during the campaign. My concern is that by the time a new president comes in, of whatever party, it will be too late to stop Iran.

04/09 10:28 AMShare