Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Outlook in NY-20   [David Freddoso]

Don't worry, we don't have another litigated election — not yet, anyway. The absentee ballots, some of which are not due until April 13, will decide the race for New York's 20th Congressional District between Scott Murphy (D) and Jim Tedisco (R).

After a count of yesterday's in-person votes, Murphy leads by 65. But the absentees already returned and currently awaiting a count lean Republican in party identification. I asked around this morning, and here is the party breakdown I received of the ballots already returned as of Monday:

Democrat: 2,105

Republican: 2,863

Other: 904

"Other" includes not just independents, but also members of the Independence, Conservative and Working Families parties.

In addition to these, there are 271 overseas military and federal write-in ballots returned so far, and based on the number issued, as many as 1,600 more could be returned in the next two weeks.

Don't forget that Republicans in this district have acquired a habit of voting for Democrats. But all other things being equal, Tedisco has to like where he is.

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty noticed this report that Tedisco's deficit is now just 25 votes after re-canvassing.

04/01 01:03 PMShare