Monday, January 21, 2008

The Weak Frontrunner   [Ramesh Ponnuru]

I still believe that McCain is the strongest candidate the Republicans could run this fall, and that he gets more grief than he deserves from conservatives. (Which is not to deny that he can make it hard for conservatives to defend him. . .)

That said, he is not in as strong a position to get the nomination as people seem to think. I keep reading about how Republicans will want to end this chaotic process. I am not at all sure that Republican voters feel the same way. Some of them may be enjoying the constant surprises. As Brit Hume says, there has been "no-mentum" in the race so far. Romney's impressive win in Michigan didn't help him in South Carolina. There is more time between the South Carolina and Florida contests than there was between Michigan and South Carolina. In Florida, McCain faces rivals who, unlike Thompson or Huckabee, are willing to take hard shots at him. (Including Giuliani, whom I by no means count out.)

Anti-McCainiacs—e.g., Rush Limbaugh—had a limited impact in South Carolina in part because so many of them were also hostile to his leading competitor there, Huckabee. The dynamics in Florida will be different.

McCain could win the nomination. But it's not his yet, and I think he is going to have to give conservatives some more assurances, and probably suffer some setbacks, before claiming it.

01/21 11:46 AMShare